Parity and pancreatic cancer risk: a dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies

Previous epidemiologic studies have reported inconsistent results between parity and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. To our knowledge, a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of this association has not been conducted.

Relevant published studies of parity and PC were identified using MEDLINE (PubMed) and Web of Science databases until November 2013. Two authors (H-BG and LW) independently assessed eligibility and extracted data. Eleven prospective and 11 case-control studies reported relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PC associated with parity. Fixed- and random-effects models were used to estimate the summary RR depending on the heterogeneity of effects.

The summary RR for PC comparing the highest versus lowest parity was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.73-1.02; Q = 50.49, P<0.001, I2 = 58.4%). Significant inverse associations were also observed in the studies that adjusted for cigarette smoking (RR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.68-0.98), Type 2 diabetes mellitus (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.75-0.93), and those that included all confounders or important risk factors (RR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.76-0.96). Additionally, in the dose-response analysis, the summary RR for per one live birth was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-1.01; Q = 62.83, P<0.001, I2 = 69.8%), which also indicated a borderline statistically significant inverse effect of parity on PC risk. No evidence of publication bias and significant heterogeneity between subgroups were detected by meta-regression analyses.

In summary, these findings suggest that higher parity is associated with a decreased risk of PC. Future large consortia or pooled studies are warranted to fully adjust for potential confounders to confirm this association.