Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Management
• Climate Science

Background:

• Wildfire impacts have increased in the Mediterranean despite extensive suppression efforts.
• Current fire suppression strategies are challenged by increasing wildfire severity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess an opportunistic fire suppression policy using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions for future large fire suppression.

Main Methods:

• Developed a fire-succession model for Catalonia, Spain.
• Simulated two fire suppression strategies exploiting fire scars in extreme weather.
• Designed scenarios combining suppression efficiency and climatic severity over 50 years (2000-2050).

Main Results:

• Opportunistic fire suppression altered fire regimes and reduced area burned under extreme conditions.
• This strategy accounted for only 18-22% of the area burned in reference scenarios.
• Climate warming increased large fires but also created more suppression opportunities, though shifting suppression to mild years requires disproportionately large areas burned.

Conclusions:

• Strategic planning of fire suppression resources offers a cost-effective, large-scale fuel-reduction strategy.
• This approach may need to be combined with other fuel-reduction treatments for significant fire regime changes, especially considering climate change.
• Climate change presents a dual effect, increasing fire incidence while potentially enhancing suppression opportunities.