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Decision accuracy in complex environments is often maximized by small group sizes.

Albert B Kao1, Iain D Couzin

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, , Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|April 25, 2014
PubMed
Summary

Collective decision-making accuracy, often called the "wisdom of crowds," may not improve with larger groups in realistic environments. Small groups can be more accurate due to beneficial noise and reduced correlated information.

Keywords:
collective behaviourdecision-makinginformation correlationoptimality

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Ecology
  • Collective Behavior
  • Decision Sciences

Background:

  • Collective decisions are crucial for survival and social organization in many species.
  • The "wisdom of crowds" suggests larger groups yield more accurate collective decisions.
  • Previous models assumed independent estimates from single environmental cues.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how correlated environmental cues and multiple cues affect collective decision-making accuracy.
  • To re-evaluate the relationship between group size and decision accuracy in realistic scenarios.
  • To determine conditions under which the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon holds or fails.

Main Methods:

  • Developed two simple theoretical models.
  • Simulated collective decision-making under conditions with correlated and multiple environmental cues.
  • Analyzed the impact of group size on decision accuracy.

Main Results:

  • The "wisdom of crowds" (monotonic increase in accuracy with group size) was observed in a minority of simulated environments.
  • In many complex environments, a finite and often small group size maximized decision accuracy.
  • Noise in small groups counterintuitively enhanced accuracy by mitigating correlated information effects.

Conclusions:

  • The conventional "wisdom of crowds" may be limited in complex, realistic environments with correlated cues.
  • Small group sizes can maximize collective decision accuracy in diverse contexts.
  • Understanding environmental complexity is key to optimizing collective decision-making strategies.