Related Experiment Video
Updated: Apr 30, 2026

A Thrombotic Stroke Model Based On Transient Cerebral Hypoxia-ischemia
Published on: August 18, 2015
Long-term risk and predictors of recurrent stroke beyond the acute phase
Johanna Pennlert1, Marie Eriksson2, Bo Carlberg2
1From the Departments of Public Health and Clinical Medicine (J.P., B.C., P.-G.W.), Medicine (J.P., B.C., P.-G.W.), and Statistics, Umeå School of Business and Economics (M.E.), Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. johanna.pennlert@vll.se.
Background And Purpose:
Previous studies have shown heterogeneous results on predictors and rates of stroke recurrence. This study set out to investigate the long-term risk and predictors of recurrent stroke in Northern Sweden 1995 to 2008.
Methods:
In the population-based Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) stroke incidence registry, stroke survivors of either ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage were followed for recurrent stroke or death. Cox regression was used to identify predictors of stroke recurrence.
Results:
The study comprised 6700 patients and 26 597 person-years. During follow-up, 928 (13.9%) patients had a recurrent stroke. Comparison between the first time period (1995-1998) and the last (2004-2008) showed declined risk of stroke recurrence (hazard ratio, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.78]). Previous myocardial infarction was less prevalent in the most recent cohort (P<0.001). Predictors of stroke recurrence were age (hazard ratio, 1.03 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.04]) and diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.34 [95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.57]). After an index intracerebral hemorrhage (n=815), a major part of recurrent events were ischemic (63%), and compared with the ischemic stroke group (n=5885), a tendency toward lower risk of recurrence was observed.
Conclusions:
Despite declining recurrence rates in this relatively young stroke population, almost one third are either dead or have experienced a second stroke in 5 years.
Related Concept Videos
Ischemic Stroke l: Introduction
Ischemic Stroke ll: Pathophysiology
Hemorrhagic Stroke l: Introduction
Stroke: Introduction and Types
Hemorrhagic Stroke ll: Pathophysiology
Acute Kidney Injury III: Clinical Manifestations