Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Oceanography
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Reconstructing source-sink dynamics is challenging due to limited data on component distribution and linkage strength.
• Marine species with pelagic dispersal face difficulties in validating particle drift models with field data when trajectories do not align with sampling sites.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics, overcoming limitations of previous methods.
• To understand observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990.

Main Methods:

• Application of a new statistical approach to reconstruct source-sink dynamics.
• Analysis of jellyfish distribution changes by contrasting pre- and post-1990 data.
• Sensitivity analysis of the reconstruction method against ocean circulation model errors.

Main Results:

• The study identified changes in jellyfish distribution in the eastern Bering Sea linked to increased jellyfish productivity and extended dispersal.
• A shift in ocean circulation patterns starting in 1991 was identified as a key factor influencing these changes.
• The source-sink reconstruction method demonstrated robustness against typical errors in ocean circulation models.

Conclusions:

• The developed statistical approach provides new insights into structural changes in source-sink dynamics.
• The method is applicable to reconstructing spatial source-sink dynamics for various species and abiotic processes like sediment transport.