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Drugs foresight 2020: a Delphi expert panel study
Tomi Lintonen1, Anne Konu, Sanna Rönkä
1Finnish Foundation for Alcohol Studies, PO Box 30, FI-00271 Helsinki, Finland. tomi.lintonen@alkoholitutkimussaatio.fi.
Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy
|June 3, 2014
Summary
Finnish drug use is expected to increase, particularly synthetic designer and medicinal drugs, with organized crime controlling the market. Increased demand for drug-related care and services is anticipated.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Criminology
- Sociology
Background:
- Historically, substance misuse is common in Western countries, with fewer reports from Finland.
- The Drugs 2020 study aimed to forecast drug situation changes in Finland by 2020.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast changes in the drug situation in Finland by the year 2020.
- To inform future public health and policy strategies regarding substance misuse.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Delphi method.
- Engaged drug experts from the EU national network in Finland.
Main Results:
- Predicted marked growth in drug use, especially synthetic designer and misused medicinal drugs.
- Anticipated an increase in home-grown cannabis and a shift in market control to organized crime.
- Foreseen increased demand for drug-related healthcare and services, with potential changes in cannabis legal status.
Conclusions:
- Foresight enables proactive measures against undesirable drug use trends.
- Finnish society must prepare for increased demand and financing of drug-related care.
- Addressing misuse of prescription drugs requires changes in prescribing practices and enhanced control measures.
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