Use of the concept of subjective probability in undergraduate training in differential diagnosing

In teaching clinical problem solving the probabilistic component should be emphasized. In the domain of empirical medical knowledge to be utilized in diagnostic strategies the prediction according to clinicians' subjective probabilities is used in medical decision making concerning patient problem definition and diagnosis. Two approaches in teaching differential diagnosing by decision models using short case studies are compared. The first is traditional one with the concept of one "true" diagnosis selected from proposed diagnoses group in a MCQ-test. The second approach reflects more the medical practice reality: the students have to predict quantified subjective probabilities of each diagnosis in a suggested diagnoses group considering all the diagnoses probable and not excluding each other. The advantages of the second procedure are evaluated.