New-onset atrial fibrillation predicts heart failure progression

Atrial fibrillation and heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction have interrelated pathophysiologies. New-onset atrial fibrillation in heart failure patients has been associated with increased mortality, but has not been definitively related to clinical heart failure progression.

To test the hypothesis that new-onset atrial fibrillation is related to clinical heart failure progression, in 2392 patients without atrial fibrillation at randomization in the Beta-blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial we measured clinical endpoints in patients who did (Group 1, n = 190) or did not (Group 2, n = 2202) develop new-onset atrial fibrillation. Results were also compared with the 303 patients who entered the trial in atrial fibrillation (Baseline/chronic group), and in Group 1/2 patients we conducted a multivariate analysis of covariates potentially related to time to first heart failure hospitalization.

Compared with Group 2, Group 1 patients post atrial fibrillation onset had a ∼2-fold increase in mortality (P < .0001) and a ∼4.5-fold increase in all-cause or heart failure hospitalization days/patient (hospitalization burden, both P < .0001). In Group 1, both types of hospitalization burden were 2.9-fold greater than in the Baseline/chronic group (P < .001), and hospitalization burden increased ∼6-fold (P < .0001) compared with the pre-event period. On multivariate analysis, new-onset atrial fibrillation was a highly significant (P < .00001) predictor of heart failure hospitalization.

In addition to being a discrete electrophysiologic event, in heart failure patients, new-onset atrial fibrillation is a predictor of and trigger for clinical heart failure progression.