Validity of an early risk score for older adults

To determine if a risk score developed in hospitalised older adults in the UK in 1962 is correlated with other measures of health and if this risk score predicts death or institutionalisation in community-living older adults.

A total of 1,735 older adults residing in the community in 1991 were followed over five years. We replicated the original risk index, a composite score of cognitive status, disability and continence. Other measures included age, gender, education, self-rated health (SRH), life satisfaction (LS) and frailty. Death and nursing home (NH) admission were determined five years later.

The risk score was strongly associated with frailty, SRH and LS. The index predicted mortality and NH use: The adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) from multinomial logistic regression models was 0.74 (0.69, 0.79) for death and 0.74 (0.67, 0.83) for NH.

A risk score devised to measure inpatient rehabilitation also predicts outcomes in community-dwelling older adults. Cognition and function predict a variety of adverse outcomes in a variety of settings in different historic eras.