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Updated: Apr 27, 2026
07:47
Measuring Delay Discounting in Humans Using an Adjusting Amount Task
Published on: January 9, 2016
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Predictive validity of delay discounting behavior in adolescence: a longitudinal twin study
Joshua D Isen1, Jordan C Sparks1, William G Iacono1
1Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota.
Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology
|July 8, 2014
Summary
Hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) in adolescents is heritable and predicts future real-world choices. However, HDD does not consistently predict substance use disorders, especially in females, suggesting limited utility as a risk marker.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral neuroscience
- Psychology
- Genetics
Background:
- Delay discounting literature assumes hypothetical discounting reflects real-world gratification deferral.
- Cross-sectional studies link delay discounting to maladaptive psychosocial outcomes, including substance use pathology.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess if hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) predicts real-world impulsive choices and substance use disorder risk in adolescents.
- To investigate the genetic and environmental influences on HDD performance.
Main Methods:
- Longitudinal study of 675 adolescent twins.
- Computerized assessment of hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) at ages 14-15.
- Prospective assessment of real-world impulsive choices, substance use, and trait impulsivity at ages 17-18.
Main Results:
- Individual differences in HDD showed moderate heritability.
- HDD prospectively predicted real-world temporal discounting at ages 17-18.
- HDD was not consistently related to substance use or trait impulsivity; associations in males were mediated by cognitive ability. HDD did not predict substance use problems or behavioral disinhibition in either sex.
Conclusions:
- HDD performance is heritable and predicts real-world temporal discounting.
- HDD may not be a valid marker for substance use disorder risk in younger adolescents, particularly females.
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