A further examination of the validity of assessing demand intensity using the Cigarette Purchase Task

The cigarette purchase task (CPT) is an efficient and safe method to simulate cigarette demand. In prior research, the CPT demand intensity index (estimated consumption if cigarettes were free) overestimated actual consumption. This study had three aims: (a) further examine concordance between demand intensity and actual consumption; (b) compare their relative sensitivity to individual differences in smoking risk; and (c) examine overestimation prevalence and predictors. Participants were adults who smoked daily with comorbid psychiatric disorders or socioeconomic disadvantage. Participants completed the CPT prior to receiving free usual-brand cigarettes for 7 days, with daily consumption recorded via interactive voice response. Aim 1 (n = 326): Demand intensity overestimated interactive voice response smoking by an average of 3.46 (standard error of the mean, 0.06) cigarettes smoked/day (p < .001). Aim 2 (n = 326): CPT and interactive voice response were concordant in discerning differences in smoking risk by opioid use disorder (p < .001), age (p = .012), and education (p < .001). Aim 3 (n = 1,101): 72.39% of participants overestimated demand intensity, with lower baseline cigarettes smoked/day, younger age, and nonmentholated cigarette use predicting overestimation (ps ≤ .038). Overall, this study demonstrates that CPT demand intensity often but modestly overestimates actual consumption, while nevertheless remaining equisensitive to differences in smoking risk as actual consumption, thereby supporting its utility and construct validity. Demand intensity overestimation is independently predicted by lighter smoking, younger age, and use of nonmentholated cigarettes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).