Impact of temperature on mortality in three major Chinese cities

To study the relation between temperature and mortality by estimating the temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou.

Data of daily mortality, weather and air pollution in the three cities were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model was established and used in analyzing the effects of temperature on mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated.

The association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, with an increased death risk of both hot and cold temperature in these cities. The effects of cold temperature on health lasted longer than those of hot temperature. The projected temperature-related mortality increased with the decreased cold-related mortality. The mortality was higher in Guangzhou than in Beijing and Shanghai.

The impact of temperature on health varies in the 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.