The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Gerontology
• Public Health

Background:

• Life expectancy has significantly increased over the past century.
• A substantial portion of these gains is now realized after age 65.
• This demographic shift is observed in the US and other developed nations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the changing proportion of life expectancy gains occurring after age 65.
• To examine the implications of increased longevity on working life and labor force participation.
• To highlight the need for innovative policies in response to the longevity transition.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical demographic data from the US and 16 comparable countries.
• Examination of trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality.
• Calculation of the share of life expectancy gains realized after age 65 over time.

Main Results:

• The proportion of life expectancy gains after age 65 rose from approximately 20% in the early 20th century to nearly 80% by the early 21st century.
• This trend suggests an asymptotic approach towards 100% of gains occurring post-65.
• Expected lifetime labor force participation as a percentage of life expectancy is declining in high-income countries leading the longevity transition.

Conclusions:

• The dramatic increase in post-65 life expectancy represents a new demographic transition.
• This transition diminishes the survival effect on working life, leading to a reduced proportion of life spent in the labor force.
• Societies must develop innovative policies to ensure that increased longevity continues to foster greater prosperity.