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The wisdom of select crowds.

Albert E Mannes, Jack B Soll1, Richard P Larrick1

  • 1Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|August 5, 2014
PubMed
Summary

The select-crowd strategy, averaging top experts, offers accurate and robust group judgments, outperforming simple averaging or single expert reliance. People find this method appealing and are willing to use it for collective wisdom.

Area of Science:

  • Social Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Collective Intelligence

Background:

  • The wisdom of crowds effect demonstrates that averaging individual judgments often yields more accurate estimates than most individuals.
  • However, simple averaging and relying on a single expert are not always robust strategies across different situations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and evaluate the select-crowd strategy as an alternative for harnessing collective wisdom.
  • To assess the accuracy, robustness, and human appeal of the select-crowd strategy compared to traditional methods.

Main Methods:

  • Developed the select-crowd strategy, which ranks judges by ability cues and averages the opinions of the top performers (e.g., top 5).
  • Validated the strategy through computer simulations and analysis of 90 archival datasets.

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  • Conducted three experiments to examine human preferences for using crowd-sourced information.

    • Main Results:

    • The select-crowd strategy, using approximately 5 knowledgeable judges, demonstrated high accuracy and robustness across diverse settings.
    • Simulations and archival data analysis confirmed the effectiveness of this approach.
    • Experimental findings indicated that while people distrust simple averages, they favorably view and are willing to adopt the select-crowd strategy.

    Conclusions:

    • The select-crowd strategy provides an accurate, robust, and appealing method for leveraging collective intelligence.
    • This approach offers a practical mechanism for individuals to effectively tap into the wisdom of crowds.