Human papillomavirus 16/18 E7 viral loads predict distant metastasis in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

Human papillomaviruses (HPV) seem to be related to distant metastasis (DM) in advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients.

This study aimed to investigate whether high-risk HPV viral load may predict DM among OSCC patients and stratify patients for risk-adapted treatment.

Viral loads of E7 oncogenes for HPV 16/18 were measured by quantitative PCR tests in paraffin-embedded lesional specimens from 312 OSCC of which the HPV genotypes had been determined previously. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors for 5-year DM and C statistics were further computed.

By multivariable analysis, high HPV 16 E7 viral load (≥15.0 copies/genome); high HPV 18 E7 viral load (≥15.0 copies/genome); pathological N2 status (pN2); tumor depth ≥11 mm; extracapsular spread (ECS); and level IV/V metastases were independent risk factors for DM. We further identified three prognostic groups. In the high-risk group (level IV/V metastases or high HPV 16/18 E7 viral load plus pN2, tumor depth ≥11 mm, or ECS), the 5-year distant metastasis rate was 74%. In the intermediate-risk group (high HPV 16/18 E7 viral load, pN2, tumor depth ≥11 mm, or ECS), the 5-year DM rate was 17%. Finally, the 5-year DM rate was 1% in the low-risk group (no risk factors). The value of the C statistics was 0.78.

Among OSCC patients, high HPV 16/18 E7 viral load identifies a small subgroup of patients at high-risk of 5-year DM and suggest the need for more intensive treatments and follow-up strategies.