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Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction
Jurriaan M De Vos1, Lucas N Joppa, John L Gittleman
1Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, 8008, Zürich, Switzerland; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Box G-W, Providence, RI, 02912, U.S.A.
Background extinction rates are likely closer to 0.1 E/MSY, not 1 E/MSY. Current species extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates, with future rates potentially 10,000 times higher.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Paleontology
Background:
- Estimating global species extinction rates is crucial for assessing human impact.
- Previous background extinction benchmarks (1 E/MSY) may be inaccurate.
- Disparate data sources suggest a lower background extinction rate.
Purpose of the Study:
- To re-evaluate background extinction rates using diverse evidence.
- To compare historical extinction rates with current and future projections.
- To determine the accuracy of molecular phylogenies in estimating extinction.
Main Methods:
- Analyzed fossil data for genus-level extinction rates.
- Utilized molecular phylogenies for terrestrial plants and animals.
- Employed statistical distributions and simulations to estimate extinction and diversification rates.
Main Results:
- Fossil data suggest background loss of 0.01 genera per million genera per year.
- Median extinction rate estimates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY.
- Diversification rates (0.05-0.2 new species/MSY) exceeded background extinction.
Conclusions:
- Typical background extinction rates are likely around 0.1 E/MSY.
- Current extinction rates are approximately 1,000 times higher than background levels.
- Future extinction rates may be up to 10,000 times higher than background levels.
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