Bayesian immunological model development from the literature: example investigation of recent thymic emigrants

Bayesian estimation techniques offer a systematic and quantitative approach for synthesizing data drawn from the literature to model immunological systems. As detailed here, the practitioner begins with a theoretical model and then sequentially draws information from source data sets and/or published findings to inform estimation of model parameters. Options are available to weigh these various sources of information differentially per objective measures of their corresponding scientific strengths. This approach is illustrated in depth through a carefully worked example for a model of decline in T-cell receptor excision circle content of peripheral T cells during development and aging. Estimates from this model indicate that 21 years of age is plausible for the developmental timing of mean age of onset of decline in T-cell receptor excision circle content of peripheral T cells.