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Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China
Taoyuan Wei1, Todd L Cherry2, Solveig Glomrød1
1Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), Norway.
The Science of the Total Environment
|September 3, 2014
Summary
Climate change impacts crop yield differently across crops. While temperature boosts wheat and rice, it harms maize. Precipitation effects are minimal, suggesting socio-economic factors are key for future food security in China.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Economics
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Traditional climate change impact assessments often assume constant elasticity of crop yield concerning climate variables.
- This study addresses the limitation of inconstant elasticity, which may better reflect real-world climate-crop interactions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate and compare constant and inconstant elasticities of crop yield with respect to temperature and precipitation in China.
- To analyze the implications of these elasticities for major crops (wheat, rice, maize) and food security.
Main Methods:
- Utilized provincial panel data from China spanning 1980-2008.
- Estimated both constant and inconstant elasticities of crop yield concerning temperature and precipitation.
Main Results:
- Temperature increases positively impacted wheat (1.3%) and rice (0.4%) yields but negatively affected maize yields (-12%).
- Precipitation changes demonstrated marginal impacts on crop yields.
- Inconstant elasticity estimates provide a more nuanced understanding of climate change effects.
Conclusions:
- Climate change impacts on crop yield in China are variable and crop-specific.
- Future food security in China may not be threatened by climate change if positive socio-economic trends persist.
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