Coupling chemical transport model source attributions with positive matrix factorization: application to two IMPROVE...

Source contributions to total fine particle carbon predicted by a chemical transport model (CTM) were incorporated into the positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model to form a receptor-oriented hybrid model. The level of influence of the CTM versus traditional PMF was varied using a weighting parameter applied to an object function as implemented in the Multilinear Engine (ME-2). The methodology provides the ability to separate features that would not be identified using PMF alone, without sacrificing fit to observations. The hybrid model was applied to IMPROVE data taken from 2006 through 2008 at Monture and Sula Peak, Montana. It was able to separately identify major contributions of total carbon (TC) from wildfires and minor contributions from biogenic sources. The predictions of TC had a lower cross-validated RMSE than those from either PMF or CTM alone. Two unconstrained, minor features were identified at each site, a soil derived feature with elevated summer impacts and a feature enriched in sulfate and nitrate with significant, but sporadic contributions across the sampling period. The respective mean TC contributions from wildfires, biogenic emissions, and other sources were 1.18, 0.12, and 0.12 ugC/m(3) at Monture and 1.60, 0.44, and 0.06 ugC/m(3) at Sula Peak.