Prediction of survival in patients with unresectable colorectal liver metastases

Liver metastases are diagnosed synchronously with the primary tumour in 25% of patients with colorectal cancer. A half of the remaining patients develop liver metastases within 3 years following colectomy. At present, the only radical treatment of metastases is liver resection. Only 2.6% of patients survive 3 years if such treatment is not implemented. The aim of the study was to assess predictive factors of long-term survival in the group of patients with unresectable colorectal liver metastases carcinoma.

Of 1029 patients with colorectal liver metastases, who were treated in the Department of General, Transplant and Liver Surgery of the Medical University of Warsaw in the years 2006-2012, cases of liver metastases assessed intraoperatively as unresectable were selected. The retrospective analysis included 85 patients. Based on the medical documentation, information concerning age, sex, characteristics of primary and secondary tumours, reasons for unresectability, neoadjuvant chemotherapy as well as local treatment of liver tumours was collected. Preoperative serum concentrations of CEA and CA 19-9 markers were considered. The Cox regression model, Kaplan- Meier estimator and log-rank test were applied in the statistical analyses.

The most common reason for unresectability were: number of metastases in 31 patients (36.5%) and extrahepatic metastases in 19 cases (22.4%). Overall survival in the entire group was 56.1% and 15.5% after 1 and 3 years respectively. A single-factor analysis showed that CEA serum levels (p=0.032; HR=1.002 per increase by 1 ng/ml) and the presence of extrahepatic metastases (p=0.037; HR=2.06) were predictors of worse survival. In a multivariate analysis, CEA concentration (p=0.017; HR=1.002 per increase by 1 ng/ml) was an independent predictor of death whereas the presence of extrahepatic metastases were not statistically significant (p=0.059; HR=2.09).

Serum concentration of CEA marker is an independent predictor of worse survival, but the presence of extrahepatic metastases shows a similar tendency.