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Updated: Apr 23, 2026

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Published on: September 23, 2025
Niche versus neutrality: a dynamical analysis
Michael Kalyuzhny1, Efrat Seri, Rachel Chocron
1Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Institute of Life Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Givat-Ram, Jerusalem 91904, Israel.
Ecological community dynamics are primarily shaped by environmental stochasticity, not niche or neutral forces. This finding necessitates a new theory integrating environmental factors for better ecological understanding and conservation.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Community Ecology
- Macroecology
Background:
- Ecological theory has historically debated niche-based (stable) vs. neutral (non-stable) community drivers.
- Contemporary theories propose a combination of niche and neutral mechanisms shape ecological communities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the dominant forces driving ecological community dynamics.
- To test the prevailing paradigm of combined niche and neutral theories using long-term data.
Main Methods:
- Employed a macroecological approach analyzing long-term tropical tree and breeding bird data.
- Utilized fluctuation analysis techniques adapted from statistical physics to assess community dynamics.
Main Results:
- Neither stabilizing niche mechanisms nor demographic stochasticity were found to be dominant drivers.
- Environmental stochasticity emerged as the predominant force shaping community dynamics in both studied systems.
Conclusions:
- Current integrated niche-neutral theories are insufficient to explain observed community dynamics.
- A new theoretical framework is needed, emphasizing environmental stochasticity alongside weaker stabilizing forces, to accurately describe ecological communities.
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