Trends in mortality decrease and economic growth
1Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, People's Republic of China, 610074, g.niu@uvt.nl.
Demography
|October 4, 2014
Summary
This study links latent mortality trends with economic growth (GDP). Extending the Lee-Carter model with GDP improves mortality forecast interpretability and fit.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Actuarial Science
- Economics
Background:
- Stochastic mortality models often use latent factors, making trend interpretation difficult.
- Explanation methods link mortality to observable factors, bridging a gap in current models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the relationship between latent mortality trends and economic growth (GDP).
- To enhance the Lee-Carter mortality model by incorporating GDP as an explanatory factor.
Main Methods:
- Comprehensive analysis of the correlation between mortality dynamics and GDP trends.
- Extension of the established Lee-Carter framework to include GDP alongside latent factors.
Main Results:
- A clear relationship was identified between latent mortality trends and GDP growth.
- The extended Lee-Carter model demonstrated improved data fitting compared to traditional methods.
Conclusions:
- Incorporating GDP into mortality models enhances forecast interpretability.
- GDP serves as a valuable observable factor for understanding and predicting mortality dynamics.
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