[The development of drug utilization with special reference to demographic factors]

Possible influences of demographic changes in the Federal Republic of Germany on future expenditures for medication have been investigated using population models from the Federal Statistical Office and data concerning the structure of current drug expenditures of the health insurance system. In addition the former contribution of demographic changes to the development of drug expenditures has been estimated using retrospective analysis. The study demonstrates that a constant supply with medicines would require an increase of expenses of 0.6% per year until 2,000 AD due to demographic changes, assuming other conditions remain constant. Development since 1957, however, shows that demographic influences are of relatively low importance for the development of total drug expenditures. During the last decade the total growth of costs for medicines was 6 times higher than that which would have been expected due to demographic changes alone. Further comparisons with the growth rate of the gross national product (GNP) demonstrate that since 1975 growth of drug expenditures parallels growth of GNP. The price indices for pharmaceutical products and for cost of living developed in a parallel way during the same period of time.