A clinical prediction formula for apnea-hypopnea index

Objectives. There are many studies regarding unnecessary polysomnography (PSG) when obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is suspected. In order to reduce unnecessary PSG, this study aims to predict the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) via simple clinical data for patients who complain of OSAS symptoms. Method. Demographic, anthropometric, physical examination and laboratory data of a total of 390 patients (290 men, average age 50 ± 11) who were subject to diagnostic PSG were obtained and evaluated retrospectively. The relationship between these data and the PSG results was analyzed. A multivariate linear regression analysis was performed step by step to identify independent AHI predictors. Results. Useful parameters were found in this analysis in terms of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), neck circumference (NC), oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry (SpO2), and tonsil size (TS) to predict the AHI. The formula derived from these parameters was the predicted AHI = (0.797 × BMI) + (2.286 × NC) - (1.272 × SpO2) + (5.114 × TS) + (0.314 × WC). Conclusion. This study showed a strong correlation between AHI score and indicators of obesity. This formula, in terms of predicting the AHI for patients who complain about snoring, witnessed apneas, and excessive daytime sleepiness, may be used to predict OSAS prior to PSG and prevent unnecessary PSG.