Assessing TLI as a Predictor of Treatment Seeking for SUD among Youth Transitioning to Young Adulthood

To date, few studies have been conducted evaluating predictors of treatment seeking for substance use disorders as persons make the transition from preadolescence (a period of very low substance use) to young adulthood (a period of peak substance use). The few studies of this area which have been conducted to date have generally been limited by their use of a cross-sectional rather than a longitudinal study design. We have conducted a longitudinal etiology study (CEDAR) to assess whether an index of behavioral undercontrol called the Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) measured during preadolescence serves as a predictor of the development of substance use disorders (SUD) and of treatment utilization during young adulthood. Our recent work has focuses on subjects with cannabis use disorders (CUD), since CUD are the most common SUD. In recent analyses, we found that TLI serves as a predictor of the development of cannabis use disorder (CUD) among young adults (Kirisci et al., 2009).

In the current study, we hypothesized that TLI as assessed during preadolescence would predict treatment seeking a decade later when the subjects were young adults.

The 375 participants in this study were initially recruited when they were 10-12 years of age. TLI status was determined at baseline, and subsequent assessments were conducted at 12-14, 16, 19, and 22 years of age. Variables examined included TLI as well as demographic variables. Path analyses were conducted.

Of the 375 subjects recruited at age 10-12, 92 subjects (24.5%) were diagnosed with a CUD by the age of 22. TLI as assessed during pre-adolescence (at age 10 to 12) was found to be associated with substance-related treatment during young adulthood (age 19 and at age 22).

These findings confirmed our hypothesis that TLI assessed during preadolescent years serves as a predictor of treatment at age 19 and at age 22.