Dealing with femtorisks in international relations

Area of Science:

• International Relations
• Systemic Risk Analysis
• Complexity Science

Background:

• Global interdependence amplifies risks from actors outside formal institutions.
• Emergent actors include human agents and large-scale phenomena like climate change and globalization.
• These actors, though individually small, can trigger significant challenges in international relations.

Purpose of the Study:

• Introduce and define "femtorisks" as a novel concept in systemic risk.
• Highlight the importance of femtorisks due to their potential to destabilize complex adaptive systems.
• Argue for new methodologies in risk assessment and management for international relations.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual analysis of actor interactions within complex adaptive systems.
• Examination of systemic risk through the lens of interdisciplinary system interfaces (social, financial, political, technological, ecological).
• Inspiration drawn from evolutionary theory and ecological resilience principles.

Main Results:

• Femtorisks, when embedded in complex adaptive systems, can lead to increasing global instability.
• The cross-systemic nature of femtorisks challenges traditional risk assessment models.
• Cascading consequences across system boundaries are a key characteristic of femtorisks.

Conclusions:

• Existing approaches to systemic risk assessment in international relations are insufficient.
• New frameworks are needed, drawing from evolutionary and ecological resilience concepts.
• Proactive management of femtorisks is essential for global stability and resilient international systems.