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Updated: Apr 20, 2026

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations
Published on: February 3, 2023
Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations
Garrett Nieddu1, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Montclair State University, 1 Normal Avenue, Montclair, NJ, 07043, USA, nieddug1@mail.montclair.edu.
Abstract:
We consider a stochastic population model, where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) WKB approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quantify the effectiveness of the control and agree well with numerical simulations.
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