Has protest increased since the 1970s? How a survey question can construct a spurious trend

Area of Science:

• Political Science
• Sociology
• Social Movements

Background:

• The prevailing literature suggests a global increase in political protest over the past four decades.
• This assertion is largely based on survey data measuring participation in demonstrations and boycotts.
• A key limitation is the historical focus on specific protest forms, potentially omitting broader categories like strikes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To re-evaluate trends in political protest by incorporating comprehensive strike data.
• To assess the impact of including strikes on established understandings of protest volume and participant demographics.
• To identify methodological limitations in existing survey instruments used to measure political participation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized two distinct data sources in Britain for the 1980s and 1990s: a population survey and an event catalogue.
• Comprehensively measured strike incidence alongside other forms of protest.
• Analyzed the demographic characteristics of protesters, specifically education levels, in light of strike data.

Main Results:

• Strikes significantly outnumbered demonstrations and other protest forms when comprehensively measured.
• The previously held notion that protesters are highly educated is challenged when strikes are accurately included.
• Strikes in Britain have experienced a substantial decline since the 1980s, outweighing increases in other protest types.
• The total volume of political protest has decreased, contrary to existing literature.

Conclusions:

• Standard survey questions on political participation can misrepresent social trends if not critically examined.
• The inclusion of comprehensive strike data is crucial for an accurate understanding of protest dynamics.
• Methodological scrutiny of survey instruments is essential for reliable social science research.