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The origin of risk aversion.

Ruixun Zhang1, Thomas J Brennan2, Andrew W Lo3

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|December 3, 2014
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Evolutionary pressures explain individual differences in risk aversion. Risk aversion arises from systematic reproductive risk, while risk neutrality emerges from uncorrelated risk, impacting species across the board.

Keywords:
evolutionexpected utility theoryrisk aversionrisk preferencesrisk-sensitive foraging

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Behavioral economics
  • Decision theory

Background:

  • Risk aversion is a fundamental concept in economics, yet its origins and individual variations remain poorly understood.
  • Existing research has not fully explored the evolutionary underpinnings of risk preferences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and investigate an evolutionary explanation for the emergence of risk aversion.
  • To understand why risk preferences differ among individuals.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a simple binary-choice model to simulate evolutionary scenarios.
  • Analysis of the impact of systematic versus idiosyncratic reproductive risk on selection.
  • Examination of how different statistical properties of reproductive rates influence utility functions.

Main Results:

  • Risk aversion is favored by natural selection when reproductive risk is systematic (correlated across individuals).
  • Risk neutrality arises when reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (uncorrelated across individuals).
  • The degree of risk aversion is directly linked to the stochastic nature of reproductive rates.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a novel evolutionary framework for understanding the origins of risk aversion.
  • The model suggests that risk preferences are primitive traits shaped by reproductive risk, applicable across diverse species.
  • Different statistical properties of reproductive rates can lead to distinct utility functions, explaining variations in risk-taking behavior.