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Updated: Apr 20, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Relapsing multiple sclerosis patients treated with disease modifying therapy exhibit highly variable disease
Thomas F Scott1, Christopher T Hackett2, Matthew R Quigley3
1Allegheny General Hospital, Department of Neurology, Pittsburgh, USA; Drexel University College of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Pittsburgh, USA.
Multiple sclerosis (MS) progression can be categorized into aggressive, intermediate, and mild patterns. Aggressive MS (AMS) leads to significant disability within two years, even with disease-modifying treatments (DMTs).
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Immunology
- Clinical Research
Background:
- Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease affecting the central nervous system.
- Understanding disease progression patterns is crucial for effective management, especially during the treatment era.
Purpose of the Study:
- To define and characterize three distinct patterns of MS progression: aggressive MS (AMS), intermediate MS (IMS), and mild MS (MMS).
- To develop a predictive model for identifying patients likely to reach an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 6.0.
Main Methods:
- Stratification of Relapsing MS (RMS) patients into AMS, IMS, and MMS based on the rate of change in EDSS scores.
- Comparison of EDSS progression rates before and after applying these new definitions.
Main Results:
- Significant differences in disability were observed across the three MS progression groups (p ≤ 0.001).
- Aggressive MS (AMS) patients exhibited a more severe and disabling disease course compared to the intermediate MS (IMS) group.
- 98% of patients received disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), yet distinct progression patterns persisted.
Conclusions:
- MS progression can transition to an aggressive course at any point within the first 15 years, irrespective of DMT use.
- The novel definition of AMS identifies patients who experience rapid permanent disability, even with modern treatments.
- Early identification of AMS is critical for timely intervention and management strategies.
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