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Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research
Lina Madaniyazi1, Yuming Guo2, Weiwei Yu2
1School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 10 Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
Environment International
|December 3, 2014
Summary
Climate change may increase mortality from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). This review identifies uncertainties in projecting future air pollution-related deaths and suggests systematic approaches for policymakers.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Climate Science
Background:
- Climate change poses risks to human health through air pollutants like fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3).
- Projecting future mortality risks from these pollutants involves complex modeling with inherent uncertainties.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review methods for projecting future PM2.5- and O3-related mortality.
- To identify key uncertainties and optimal approaches for addressing them in projection studies.
Main Methods:
- A comprehensive literature search was performed across major scientific databases (PubMed, Scopus, etc.).
- The review included peer-reviewed articles published in English between January 1980 and September 2013.
Main Results:
- Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, generally indicating increased mortality with climate change-driven PM2.5 and O3.
- Research is limited in developing countries; PM2.5 impacts may be greater than O3, but PM2.5 projection studies are fewer.
- Significant variations exist in projection methodologies, hindering result comparability.
Conclusions:
- Addressing uncertainties in air pollution mortality projections is crucial for effective policymaking.
- Systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties is needed to manage climate change impacts on mortality.
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