Geographical distribution of alcohol-attributable mortality in Chile: a Bayesian spatial analysis

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Geographic Health Analysis

Background:

• Alcohol consumption is a significant risk factor for mortality.
• Understanding the geographic distribution of alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM) is crucial for targeted interventions.
• Previous studies have not detailed AAM at the municipal level in Chile.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map the distribution of alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM) across 345 municipalities in Chile for the year 2009.
• To identify geographic concentrations of AAM for various cause groups.
• To assess the utility of small-area estimation methods for public health policy.

Main Methods:

• Estimated AAM for individuals aged 15 and older using per capita alcohol consumption and survey data.
• Extracted alcohol's effect on mortality causes from scientific literature.
• Employed Bayesian hierarchical models to smooth Standardized Mortality Ratios for municipalities across six cause groups.

Main Results:

• Significant geographic variation in AAM risk was observed across Chilean municipalities.
• High-risk municipalities for alcohol-related causes were predominantly located in the south-central and southern regions.
• The percentage of municipalities with high AAM risk varied by region, reaching up to 87.0% for certain cause groups.

Conclusions:

• Alcohol-attributable mortality risk exhibits distinct geographic patterns in Chile, particularly in southern regions.
• Small-area estimation of AAM is an effective method for identifying high-risk areas.
• Findings can inform the development of localized public health policies and intervention programs.