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Forecasting emergency department visits using internet data.

Andreas Ekström1, Lisa Kurland1, Nasim Farrokhnia1

  • 1Department of Clinical Science and Education, Södersjukhuset, Section of Emergency Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Emergency Medicine, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Forecasting emergency department (ED) visits using website traffic data is feasible. Analyzing Stockholm Health Care Guide website visits accurately predicted daily ED attendance, aiding resource allocation.

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Area of Science:

  • Health Informatics
  • Public Health Surveillance
  • Predictive Analytics

Background:

  • Emergency department (ED) crowding is a significant healthcare challenge.
  • Forecasting ED visits can improve resource allocation and patient flow.
  • Internet data offers a potential proxy for public health concerns and behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the predictive power of regional medical website visits for daily emergency department attendance.
  • To determine if web traffic can serve as a tool for healthcare providers to anticipate ED demand.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective, observational study used regression analysis to forecast daily ED visits.
  • Independent variables included website visits (Stockholm Health Care Guide) and day of the week.
  • Data spanned August 2011 to October 2012, with validation using mean absolute percentage error.

Main Results:

  • A significant correlation (r=0.77, P<.001) was found between website visits and subsequent ED attendance.
  • The forecasting model achieved a 4.8% mean absolute percentage error for the entire region.
  • Individual hospital predictions ranged from 5.2% to 13.1% error.

Conclusions:

  • Website visits can reliably predict emergency department attendance.
  • The developed model demonstrates effectiveness at both regional and individual hospital levels.
  • Utilizing internet data for ED visit prediction presents a promising approach for healthcare management.