Dissolving decision making? Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Economics
• Physics and Chemistry

Background:

• Policy and decision-making processes increasingly rely on science-based models.
• The interaction between model construction and its surrounding environment is critical for model utility.
• Understanding the contextual factors shaping model roles is essential for effective policy integration.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the roles of three science-based models in Dutch policy and decision-making.
• To analyze how political and scientific environments influence model application.
• To examine the long-term use and impact of models in policy processes.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of the historical construction of models.
• Assessment of changes in political and scientific environments.
• Longitudinal study of model utilization in policy.

Main Results:

• Models are more successfully used when developed in stable political and scientific contexts.
• Stability and certainty within a scientific field predict model usefulness for policy.
• Economic models face more disputes than ecology-based or physics/chemistry models.

Conclusions:

• The utility of science-based models in policy is contingent on environmental stability.
• Model roles in policy are complex and not merely technocratic.
• Contextual factors, including historical development and environmental stability, are key to successful model integration in policy-making.