A neutral theory for interpreting correlations between species and genetic diversity in communities

Spatial patterns of biological diversity have been extensively studied in ecology and population genetics, because they reflect the forces acting on biodiversity. A growing number of studies have found that genetic (within-species) and species diversity can be correlated in space (the so-called species-gene diversity correlation [SGDC]), which suggests that they are controlled by nonindependent processes. Positive SGDCs are generally assumed to arise from parallel responses of genetic and species diversity to variation in site size and connectivity. However, this argument implicitly assumes a neutral model that has yet to be developed. Here, we build such a model to predict SGDC in a metacommunity. We describe how SGDC emerges from competition within sites and variation in connectivity and carrying capacity among sites. We then introduce the formerly ignored mutation process, which affects genetic but not species diversity. When mutation rate is low, our model confirms that variation in the number of migrants among sites creates positive SGDCs. However, when considering high mutation rates, interactions between mutation, migration, and competition can produce negative SGDCs. Neutral processes thus do not always contribute positively to SGDCs. Our approach provides empirical guidelines for interpreting these novel patterns in natura with respect to evolutionary and ecological forces shaping metacommunities.