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Measuring disaster recovery: bouncing back or reaching the counterfactual state?
Shaoming Cheng1, Emel Ganapati1, Sukumar Ganapati1
1Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Florida International University, United States.
Disasters
|January 13, 2015
Summary
Measuring disaster recovery is vital for policy and aid. This study found that while areas affected by Hurricane Katrina did not fully return to pre-disaster housing conditions, they did achieve a counterfactual recovery, suggesting rural areas may be less vulnerable than previously thought.
Area of Science:
- Disaster recovery research
- Public policy and administration
- Urban and rural studies
Background:
- Measuring locale recovery post-disaster is critical for public policy, disaster aid allocation, and program evaluation.
- Two primary recovery measurement approaches exist: returning to pre-disaster conditions and achieving a counterfactual state (what would have been without the disaster).
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the outcomes of 'bouncing back' versus 'counterfactual' recovery measurements.
- To assess housing recovery indicators (new units, valuations) in Hurricane Katrina-affected counties using both approaches.
- To examine potential differences in recovery between rural and urban counties.
Main Methods:
- Quasi-experimental design was employed to estimate the counterfactual state.
- Two housing recovery indicators were analyzed: total new housing units and their valuations.
- Data was collected from Hurricane Katrina-affected counties, differentiating between rural and urban areas.
Main Results:
- Counties analyzed did not fully return to their pre-disaster housing conditions.
- However, these counties demonstrated recovery when measured against the counterfactual state.
- Findings suggest rural counties might be less vulnerable in disaster recovery than commonly assumed in existing literature.
Conclusions:
- The choice of recovery measurement significantly impacts assessment outcomes.
- Counterfactual recovery is a more attainable metric than a complete return to pre-disaster conditions for housing.
- Disaster recovery strategies may need re-evaluation, particularly concerning the assumed vulnerability of rural areas.
Keywords:
Hurricane Katrinahousinginterrupted time series designquasi-experimental designrecoveryrural versus urban recoveryMore Related Videos
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