Predicting student attrition in a baccalaureate curriculum

A longitudinal study of enrollment data of the Universtiy of Wisconsin--Madison School of Nursing identified several trends in student attrition over a six-year period and formed the basis for the development of a model to predict student attrition. The model proposed to satisfy the need for more precise measures of probable student retention and attrition for counseling and planning purposes in the school's new curriculum. To arrive at a means for predicting student attrition, scores of random samples of continuing and dropout student on achievement, learning style, and psychologial variables obtained during the first three years of the new curriculum were examined using a discriminant analysis technique. A significant differentiation between continuing and dropout students (p less than .000) resulted and allowed a predictive function to be developed. Using a conservative method of identification with student scores transformed by this function, predictions of successful and nonsuccessful students were obtained.