EXPLAINING THE FERTILITY PUZZLE IN SRI LANKA

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Sociology

Background:

• Sri Lanka's fertility transition began in the mid-1960s.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) reached below replacement levels by 2000.
• A subsequent rise in TFR (2006/7) prompted debate on fertility trends.

Purpose of the Study:

• To critically evaluate the fertility data from Sri Lanka's 2000 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).
• To investigate the accuracy of the reported below-replacement fertility level in 2000.
• To reassess the interpretation of Sri Lanka's fertility transition trajectory.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of Sri Lanka's Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data.
• Statistical examination of fertility trends and TFR.
• Comparative analysis of survey data from different periods.

Main Results:

• The paper questions the reliability of the 2000 DHS finding of below-replacement fertility.
• Evidence suggests the reported TFR of 1.9 in 2000 may be inaccurate.
• The observed TFR fluctuation warrants a re-examination of the fertility transition.

Conclusions:

• The fertility transition in Sri Lanka may not have reached below-replacement levels as suggested by the 2000 DHS.
• Further investigation is needed to confirm accurate fertility rates.
• The interpretation of a fertility transition reversal requires robust data validation.