Hematopoietic death of unprotected man from photon irradiations: statistical modeling from animal experiments

Most estimates of the radiation dose lethal to 50 per cent of a human population are based on historical data taken from well-known experiences reflecting inadequately known physical and biological conditions, or from medical procedures where individual patients received advantages of modern clinical care. It has been debated as to whether the experience of unprotected man would more closely reflect that of hospital patients or of the radiobiological studies with large animals. The issue at question is whether the apparent two-fold or more increased susceptibility of large animals to death from bone marrow damage (compared with the majority of estimates for man) is due more to true interspecies differences or the lack of medical support. This study is an attempt to assess the radiosensitivity of unprotected man in terms of the composite animal experiments. Based upon an extensive data base containing 121 separate animals studies using 13 different species, an estimate of the mortality dose-response relationship due to a uniform, continuous field of photon radiation is predicted for 70 kg unprotected man. Man is assumed to have a level of radiation sensitivity similar to that of the species represented in the data base, after adjustment for body weight. The mathematical model used includes fixed terms to account for effects of body weight and dose rate, and random terms reflecting inter- and intra-species variation and experimental error. Point predictions and 95 per cent prediction intervals are given for the LD05, LD10, LD25, LD50, LD75, LD90, and LD95, for dose rates ranging from 0.01 to 0.5 Gy/min, and treatment times ranging from about 2 min to about 24 h. At 1 cGy/min our point prediction of the LD50 is 299 cGy with an associated 95 per cent prediction interval of (168 cGy, 535 cGy). The analogous values at 50 cGy/min are 183 cGy and (103 cGy, 326 cGy).