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On the quarantine period for ebola virus
1Departmetn of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Background:
21 days has been regarded as the appropriate quarantine period for holding individuals potentially exposed to Ebola Virus (EV) to reduce risk of contagion. There does not appear to be a systematic discussion of the basis for this period.
Methods:
The prior estimates for incubation time to EV were examined, along with data on the first 9 months of the current outbreak. These provided estimates of the distribution of incubation times.
Results:
A 21 day period for quarantine may result in the release of individuals with a 0.2 - 12% risk of release prior to full opportunity for the incubation to proceed. It is suggested that a detailed cost-benefit assessment, including considering full transmission risks, needs to occur in order to determine the appropriate quarantine period for potentially exposed individuals.
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