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Published on: August 30, 2019
[Establishment of prediction model for spontaneous rupture of primary liver cancer]
Jian Wu1, Rong-Liang Tong1, Chao-Feng Ding1
1Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery， Department of Surgery， First Affiliated Hospital， Zhejiang University School of medicine; Key Laboratory of Combined Multi-organ Transplantation， Ministry of Health; Key Laboratory of Organ Transplantation， Zhejiang Province， Hangzhou 310003， China.
Objective:
To establish a prediction model for spontaneous rupture of primary liver cancer.
Methods:
The clinical data of 77 patients with spontaneous rupture of primary liver cancer and 95 primary liver cancer patients without spontaneous rupture were collected and compared. The risk factors of spontaneous rupture of primary liver cancer were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression.
Results:
Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that moderate or severe ascites, liver cirrhosis, protrusion of tumor from the liver surface, tumor size ≥ 5 cm were independent risk factors of spontaneous rupture of primary liver cancer. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the established model for spontaneous rupture was 0.862 (P<0.05).
Conclusion:
The established model base on the severity of ascites, liver cirrhosis, protrusion of tumor and large tumor size can effectively estimate the risk of spontaneous rupture of primary liver cancer.
