Simple predictive model for Early Childhood Caries of Chilean children

Early Childhood Caries (ECC), in both industrialized and developing countries, is the most prevalent chronic disease in childhood and it is still a health public problem, affecting mainly populations considered as vulnerable, despite being preventable.

The purpose of this study was to obtain a simple predictive model based on risk factors for improving public health strategies for ECC prevention for 3-5 year-old children.

Clinical, environmental and psycho-socio-cultural data of children (n=250) aged 3-5 years, of both genders, from the Health Centers, were recorded in a Clinical History and Behavioral Survey.

24% of children presented behavioral problems (bizarre behavior was the main feature observed as behavioral problems). The variables associated to dmf ?4 were: bad children temperament (OR=2.43 [1.34, 4.40]) and home stress (OR=3.14 [1.54, 6.41]). It was observed that the model for male gender has higher accuracy for ECC (AUC= 78%, p-value=0.000) than others.

Based on the results, we proposed a model where oral hygiene, sugar intake, male gender, and difficult temperament are main factors for predicting ECC. This model could be a promising tool for cost-effective early childhood caries control.