Progression to AIDS in patients with lymphadenopathy or AIDS-related complex: reappraisal of risk and predictive...

In 1985, we reported that acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) developed in 14 of 81 (17%) men with generalized lymphadenopathy followed prospectively for an average of 13 months. The presence of oral thrush or constitutional symptoms, or both, or severely impaired T4+ cell responses to specific antigen (interferon-gamma production) accurately identified patients at immediate risk for AIDS. The purpose of the current report is to describe the progress of these 81 patients during the three and a half years since enrollment and to include new data on initial serum levels of beta 2 microglobulin and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) p24 antigen.

The mean age of the 81 patients was 35.4 years; 79 were homosexuals and two were drug abusers. Immunologic testing was performed once at the time of enrollment in all patients. Seventy-seven of the 81 patients were seropositive for HIV antibody. Frozen samples of serum, also obtained at initial study, were assayed in 1988 for beta 2 microglobulin and HIV p24 antigen. The clinical status of patients was determined six, 14, and 36 months after enrollment was closed (June 1984) by either interview and examination or telephone contact with private physicians.

After three and a half years of follow-up, 42 patients have developed AIDS, including (1) 77% who had had thrush or symptoms, or both, (2) 80% to 88% of those who originally demonstrated marked immunologic abnormalities (skin test anergy, less than 200 T4+ cells/mm3, T4/T8 cell ratio of less than 0.5, severely impaired interferon-gamma production [less than 25 U/mL], or elevated serum beta 2 microglobulin level [greater than 3.0 mg/L], and (3) 95% of patients with HIV p24 antigenemia. However, AIDS also developed in 51% of patients who had had more apparently benign initial manifestations (lymphadenopathy alone, herpes zoster), in 41% to 54% despite normal initial results for either T4+ cell number, interferon-gamma secretion, beta 2 microglobulin, or skin testing, and in 44% of those whose sera did not contain HIV antigen.

These updated results demonstrate the remarkably poor prognosis of patients with generalized lymphadenopathy or AIDS-related complex irrespective of initial clinical, immunologic, and serologic findings, and suggest that essentially all such persons may be candidates for antiviral therapy.