Long-term modeling on HPV vaccination: do we really need any more?

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Vaccinology
• Health Economics

Background:

• Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a primary cause of cervical cancer, leading to the development of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines in 2007.
• Initial HPV vaccination programs targeted girls aged 10-14 years with three-dose schedules at high global prices.
• The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has since approved a two-dose schedule, aiming for cost savings.

Discussion:

• Competitive tendering in Western countries has successfully reduced vaccine procurement costs.
• The debate continues regarding the extension of HPV vaccination to males, impacting herd immunity potential.
• The introduction of a nonavalent vaccine is anticipated to alter the market dynamics and cost-effectiveness landscape.

Key Insights:

• HPV vaccination is now standard in most EU countries, primarily for adolescent girls.
• Economic strategies like competitive tendering have demonstrated significant cost reductions.
• The shift to a two-dose schedule offers potential financial benefits for public health programs.

Outlook:

• Future economic evaluations must incorporate updated vaccine schedules and the upcoming nonavalent vaccine.
• The long-term value of HPV vaccination for public policy requires ongoing assessment.
• Predicting the precise market impact of new vaccine formulations remains challenging.