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Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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(Too) optimistic about optimism: the belief that optimism improves performance.

Elizabeth R Tenney1, Jennifer M Logg2, Don A Moore2

  • 1David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People selectively value optimism for decision implementation, believing it boosts performance. However, research shows optimism enhances persistence but not performance as much as expected, indicating an overestimation of its benefits.

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Cognitive Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Optimism is often valued, but its precise role and efficacy in decision-making and performance are not fully understood.
  • Previous research suggests a link between optimism and positive outcomes, yet the extent and conditions of this link require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the reasons behind people's valuation of optimism.
  • To determine the accuracy of beliefs regarding optimism's impact on performance.
  • To examine the selective prescription of optimism based on decision-making contexts.

Main Methods:

  • A series of experiments (1A-5B) were conducted involving participants evaluating the role and impact of optimism.
  • Participants prescribed optimism selectively, particularly for decision implementation versus deliberation.
  • Beliefs about optimism's influence on outcomes were tested in relation to the degree of control over the outcome.

Main Results:

  • Optimism was prescribed more for decision implementation than deliberation, indicating selective application.
  • Participants believed optimism improved outcomes more when actions had considerable influence.
  • Optimism enhanced persistence but did not improve performance to the extent anticipated.
  • Participants overestimated the optimism-performance relationship, even when not solely focused on optimism.

Conclusions:

  • People prescribe optimism strategically, believing it enhances success when performance is influenced by actions.
  • While optimism can improve persistence, its effect on actual performance is often overestimated.
  • There is a tendency to be overly optimistic about the performance-enhancing capabilities of optimism.