Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Concept Videos

Self-Serving Bias01:29

Self-Serving Bias

185
Self-serving bias is a cognitive phenomenon in which individuals attribute positive outcomes to internal factors such as their abilities, intelligence, or effort while attributing negative outcomes to external circumstances. This cognitive distortion helps maintain self-esteem but can also impede objective self-assessment.Theoretical Explanations of Self-Serving BiasTwo primary theories explain the self-serving bias: the cognitive explanation and the motivational explanation.The cognitive...
185
Unrealistic Optimism Bias01:30

Unrealistic Optimism Bias

189
Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
189
Fundamental Attribution Error01:14

Fundamental Attribution Error

13.7K
According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is...
13.7K
Self-Presentation: Self-Monitoring and Self-Handicapping02:05

Self-Presentation: Self-Monitoring and Self-Handicapping

43.4K
People can go to great lengths to protect their self-image and present themselves in ways that they want others to see them. Sociologist Erving Goffman presented the idea that a person is like an actor on a stage. Calling his theory dramaturgy, Goffman believed that we use “impression management” to present ourselves to others as we hope to be perceived. Each situation is a new scene, and individuals perform different roles depending on who is present (Goffman, 1959). Think about...
43.4K
Hindsight Biases01:12

Hindsight Biases

4.2K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
4.2K
Correspondence Bias01:17

Correspondence Bias

171
Correspondence bias, also referred to as the fundamental attribution error, describes the tendency to attribute another person’s behavior to internal characteristics rather than situational influences. This cognitive bias leads individuals to overlook external factors that may be influencing actions, thereby fostering potentially inaccurate assessments of others’ intentions and dispositions.Empirical Evidence for Correspondence BiasResearch has consistently demonstrated the...
171

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Persuading voters using human-artificial intelligence dialogues.

Nature·2025
Same author

Dialogues with large language models reduce conspiracy beliefs even when the AI is perceived as human.

PNAS nexus·2025
Same author

Reply to Quillien: Intuitive preferences and interpretive humility in intentionality judgments.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2025
Same author

Limited effectiveness of psychological inoculation against misinformation in a social media feed.

PNAS nexus·2025
Same author

Overconfidently Conspiratorial: Conspiracy Believers are Dispositionally Overconfident and Massively Overestimate How Much Others Agree With Them.

Personality & social psychology bulletin·2025
Same author

Belief in belief: Even atheists in secular countries show intuitive preferences favoring religious belief.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2025
Same journal

How Does the Mind Grow? Cross-Cultural Intuitive Theories of Mental Development.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Not All Practice Is Created Equal: Longitudinal Evidence From Over 40,000 Chess Players.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Eye Glint as a Novel Perceptual Cue in Human Vision.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Multitarget Visual Search Flexibly Switches Between Concurrent and Sequential Search Modes.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Motive Alignment Promotes Adolescents' Proenvironmental Behavior: A Field Experiment in Two Cultures.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Retributive Sentiments Track Both Deterrent and Compensatory Concerns in a Small-Scale Society and a WEIRD Sample.

Psychological science·2026
See all related articles

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 8, 2026

High-definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation over Right Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex to Enhance Metacognitive Sensitivity
06:11

High-definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation over Right Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex to Enhance Metacognitive Sensitivity

Published on: September 26, 2025

750

Is Overconfidence a Trait? An Adversarial Collaboration.

Jabin Binnendyk1, Sophia Li2, Thomas Costello3

  • 1Department of Psychology, Cornell University.

Psychological Science
|December 16, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Overconfidence may be a genuine psychological trait. New research using novel tasks with ostensibly random performance suggests consistent individual differences in confidence, supporting the trait hypothesis.

Keywords:
adversarial collaborationconfidenceindividual differenceoverconfidencetrait

More Related Videos

Boldness, Aggression, and Shoaling Assays for Zebrafish Behavioral Syndromes
08:43

Boldness, Aggression, and Shoaling Assays for Zebrafish Behavioral Syndromes

Published on: August 29, 2016

10.9K
Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
11:18

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Published on: September 12, 2014

15.7K

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2026

High-definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation over Right Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex to Enhance Metacognitive Sensitivity
06:11

High-definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation over Right Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex to Enhance Metacognitive Sensitivity

Published on: September 26, 2025

750
Boldness, Aggression, and Shoaling Assays for Zebrafish Behavioral Syndromes
08:43

Boldness, Aggression, and Shoaling Assays for Zebrafish Behavioral Syndromes

Published on: August 29, 2016

10.9K
Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
11:18

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Published on: September 12, 2014

15.7K

Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Behavioral Science

Background:

  • The nature of overconfidence, specifically whether it is a psychological trait, remains a subject of scholarly debate.
  • Previous research has faced challenges in isolating overconfidence from task-specific performance factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether overconfidence can be reliably measured as a psychological trait.
  • To address the scholarly dispute regarding the fundamental nature of overconfidence.

Main Methods:

  • An adversarial collaboration between two research teams with preregistered analyses and predictions.
  • Development of novel tasks with ostensibly random performance to measure trait overconfidence without task-related confounds.
  • Study involved 942 U.S. adults, with data collected via CloudConnect.

Main Results:

  • Robust relationships in confidence were found across novel tasks, as indicated by confirmatory factor analyses and raw correlations.
  • Findings suggest that individuals exhibit consistent beliefs about their performance capabilities even when performance is random.
  • Evidence supports the existence of trait overconfidence.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides support for the claim that overconfidence may function as a genuine psychological trait.
  • Methodological innovation in measuring confidence on random-performance tasks offers a new avenue for trait assessment.