[Projection of General Practitioner Care Demand at the Community Level]

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Demography
• Primary Care Medicine

Background:

• Germany faces a significant general practitioner (GP) succession crisis, with approximately 2,000 GPs retiring in Baden-Württemberg within 8 years.
• A shortage of newly qualified GPs and a preference for employment or group practices exacerbate this issue, potentially leaving 500 practices without successors.
• This study analyzes healthcare demand at the community level within a specific administrative district to project future GP needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the demand for general practitioner (GP) healthcare services at the community level.
• To identify communities at high risk of GP shortages due to demographic changes and physician retirement.
• To inform the development of targeted community care models.

Main Methods:

• A community-based demographic forecast was conducted for the Rottweil administrative district (21 communities) using birth and death probabilities.
• Projected population structures were used to estimate GP care demand in 2023, assuming unchanged age- and gender-specific visit rates.
• The anticipated GP deficit was calculated by comparing projected demand with the number of GPs not retiring due to age.

Main Results:

• Demographic changes will lead to a shrinking population by 2023, but population aging is projected to increase GP demand by 0.6 FTEs.
• Physician retirement poses a greater threat to primary care capacity than demographic shifts.
• Up to 32 (37%) GPs may require successors, increasing the number of communities without a GP from 4 to 9 within a decade.

Conclusions:

• The study identifies communities at elevated risk of GP shortages, considering demographic trends and the age of practicing physicians.
• The applied methodology enables proactive identification of areas needing intervention.
• Targeted, comprehensive community care models can be implemented to mitigate projected GP shortages.