[Determination of key interventions for the transition from control to elimination of malaria in China]

To determine the key interventions transferring from the control to elimination of malaria in China so as to provide the basic information for achieving malaria elimination.

Based on the data collected from the document entitled of The National Annual Report on Schistosomiasis, Malaria and Echinococcosis, published by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the malaria incidence and intervention data were selected only in the typical endemic provinces during the period of 2004-2010. The correlation between the incidence and interventions in the target provinces was analyzed based on the Panel Data Regression Model, and the key interventions were determined.

Four provinces namely Anhui, Yunnan, Hainan and Henan were targeted with 87.56% of the national malaria figures from 2004 to 2010. When Y was given as vivax malaria incidence, X1 as the log of the number of historical cases receiving radical treatment in the pre-transmission stage (RTPT) (F = 14.53, P < 0.01, R2 = 0.72), X2 as the log of risk population receiving RTPR (F = 15.90, P < 0.01, R2 = 0.71) and X3 as the number of technicians trained in microscopy (F = 11.53, P < 0.01, R2 = 0.61), three space-fixed effect models were established respectively, and X1, X2, as well as X3 had negative effects on Y value. When Y was given as falciparum malaria incidence, X1 as the accumulated technicians trained in microscopy (F = 11.06, P < 0.01, R2 = 0.87), X2 as the log of technicians trained in entomology (F = 15.28, P < 0.01, R2 = 0.89) , two two-way (space and time) fixed effect models were established respectively, and both X1 and X2 had negative effects on Y value.

RTPT among historical patients and at-risk populations as well as microscopy training influences the variation of vivax malaria incidence, while the significant interventions of microscopy training and vector control training indicate that the integrated measures with strengthened capacity in diagnosis and vector control are of importance in the control of falciparum malaria transmission.