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Updated: Apr 12, 2026
10:22
Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
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A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis.
Julio Lumbreras1, Juan Manuel de Andrés, Javier Pérez
1a Department of Chemical & Environmental Engineering , Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , Madrid , Spain.
Summary
Estimating uncertainties in air pollutant emissions is crucial for effective policy. This study introduces a simplified sensitivity analysis method to create uncertainty bands for emission projections, aiding policy decisions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
- Policy Analysis
Background:
- Effective air pollution abatement policies require accurate quantitative data on current and future pollutant emissions.
- Traditional statistical methods for estimating uncertainty in emission projections are time-consuming and resource-intensive.
- Understanding and quantifying uncertainties in emission inventories is vital for policy negotiations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a simplified, non-statistical methodology for estimating uncertainty in emission projections using sensitivity analysis.
- To apply this methodology to Spain's "with measures" scenario for the 12 highest emitting sectors.
- To demonstrate the practical application of the method for key sectors like power plants and agriculture.
Main Methods:
- Developed a simplified methodology for non-statistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis.
- Applied the methodology to Spain's 12 highest emitting sectors for greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.
- Modified driving factors of selected sectors to generate uncertainty bands up to 2020.
Main Results:
- Generated uncertainty bands for emission projections up to 2020 for 12 key sectors in Spain.
- Demonstrated the methodology's application with in-depth examples for power plants and agriculture/livestock sectors.
- Validated the methodology against a recomputed emission trend and official 2010 figures, showing good performance.
Conclusions:
- The developed sensitivity analysis method simplifies uncertainty assessment for emission projections.
- This approach provides valuable, quantifiable uncertainty information for policy development and negotiations.
- The methodology is adaptable and can be utilized by other countries to improve their emission inventory and projection uncertainty analysis.
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