Modelling the Phenological Relationships of Questing Immature Ixodes Ricinus (Ixodidae) Using Temperature and NDVI...

All active stages of the tick Ixodes ricinus were collected monthly at two sites in northern Spain between the years 2000 and 2007. We used percentile accumulation of the active stage in the environment to evaluate simple and coherent correlations between accumulation of the active stages of larvae and nymphs and medium-resolution MODIS satellite-derived information on the climate, including monthly and accumulated temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This framework is not intended to predict the actual abundance of ticks in the field as a measure of the hazard to humans, but to provide a basic structure for addressing the phenology of the tick in its geographic range. We demonstrated that the accumulation of larval ticks in the active stage is a sigmoid function of the accumulated temperature from the beginning of the calendar year. We also demonstrated that the accumulated temperature necessary to recruit nymphs from the questing larval stage is a function of the changes in accumulated larvae and nymphs and the accumulated temperature and NDVI recorded by the Aqua sensor. The low p-values obtained in the regressions confirmed that such recruitment can be calculated using time intervals to estimate, for example, the beginning of the questing period or the time of the year when a population peak can be expected. The comparison among predicted and actual accumulated temperatures between larvae and nymph recruitment had an averaged error of ±20 days in one complete year. The use of accumulated temperature and NDVI proposed in this study opens up the re-evaluation of reports on the phenology of the tick in Europe. This framework is intended to evaluate the same correlations along the tick's range and predict its phenological patterns in areas of pathogen transmission risk for humans.